Romney and Ron Paul seem to be stuck at 21%. The surprise is Santorum who seems to be surging, gathering almost all of the supporters fleeing Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann who are widely seen as no longer viable candidates. Newt has settled down to a more realistic 15% after his surge but his support is really weak. Really, weak. Which is perfectly understandable given his baggage and the huge attack campaign launched against him by Romney's completely independent of Romney's superpac. (Thank you Supreme Court!). Newt's defectors seem to be flowing to Santorum. Perry has been the biggest surprise. By his reputation, I thought he would be huge, possibly the anti-Mitt, but it was a case of "welcome to the big leagues".
Santorum is going to win. Either outright or by beating the expectations and he has a great chance of an outright win. Either way, the press doesn't want Mitt to walk away with it so somebody's a contender and that fits Santorum. Unfortunately, Santorum has no organization outside of Iowa so he's only a theoretically, maybe, really viable candidate and cannot possibly organize New Hampshire before the primary. Still, that would meet expectations and he could make a splash in South Carolina.
It's getting interesting. Just a short eight months until the conventions then on to the general election against Obama.