Inflation

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SPQR
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There has been some discussion about inflation. In one case a purchase at Publix was cited. Here is another recent example from a Publix store.

A 75 oz container of Woolite laundry detergent was downsized to 50 Oz. Good news was the price was also reduced from 10.79 to 8.79. Bad news was that after you did the math it was actually a 22% price increase. At the new per ounce price the old 75 oz container would have jumped from 10.79 to 13.19. The price increase was so high the manufacturer attempts to disguise it by offering a different sized container.

Chris P. Bacon
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Food Inflation

If you listened to all these "sky is falling" economic Chicken Littles around here, you'd think food inflation was skyrocketing.

To the contrary, food inflation is at a near-record low.

  • 2008 - 5.5%
  • 2009 - 1.8%
  • 2010 (est) - 0.5% minimum to 1.5% maximum (october 2010 estimate)

These estimates, of course, do not fit well with the fringe right narrative of "Doom 'n Gloom and its all Obama's fault" so we see heavily massaged talking points coupled with misleading cherry-picked statistics to back up their specious claims of high food inflation.

"Faith-based Economic Forecasts", if you will.

Please note that these are NOT 'differences of opinion" or "differing interpretation of statistics", this is the hard right lying out their keisters in order to promote a particular talking point.

Today, the Chicago Tribune reported its annual cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for four: Up 50 cents over last year,$43.47 vs $42.99. A rise of 1.1%

PTC Observer
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Bacon - notwithstanding

that you are quoting government statistics, which of course no one can trust, I will remind you of the quantity theory of money that states: that whenever the quantity of money is increased while the demand for money to be held in cash reserve on hand is unchanged, the purchasing power of money will fall.

A. The FED will be increasing the money supply by printing money from now until the end of this year, and likely into next year. While they have given a figure of $700 billion, this number is subject to change upward.

B. The saving rate in the United States continues to go up, not down.

C. Interest rates are at an all time low, and banks are finding it hard to find customers.

D. Unemployment is at 13% including those that have given up looking.

E. Nearly everyone in the United States is struggling to get out from under the easy credit real estate bubble caused by government intervention in the market.

Now, try and grasp this if you can, the government is printing money for the second time in Mr. Obama's tenure, it looks like the printing presses will continue to work with about 3 trillion in fiat currency pumped into the economy. Savings in dollars will continue to be depreciated, assets will continue to climb in inflation adjusted dollars (but not value), the FED is trying to trick the population with a "wealth" illusion and you will hold on to your notion that we should all be happy with these events.

True to your socialist core, you would have us believe that the President, Congress, and the Treasury has everything under control. The state can't control squat pal. Unfortunately, we will all pay for their incompetence and your ideal of the perfect society.

You are at best naive and at worst dishonest.

PTC Observer
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Bacon - one more thing

get a basic economics book and study it before you post this kind of stuff, people merely need to look at their bills to see if inflation is impacting their pocketbook. Or is fact and truth optional in your world?

Chris P. Bacon
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What "everyone knows"...

It's always fascinating to hear what you and Observer Bin Laden claim that "everyone knows".

I'm not surprised that you reject the accuracy of government statistics, given your propensity to blame anything and everything on the Federal government. You and observer have built a comfortable little cocoon of personal opinions, lies and distortions, unimpeded by such trivialities as "facts" and "reality", telling us what "everyone knows" to be "true".

I've offered documented proof that food inflation has been at near historic lows for the past year. I invite you to prove my data wrong...sadly, your personal opinion, like that of your lying spineless brethren Observer, doesn't pass muster with regards to being verifiable.

The world is a complex place, which has to be scary for someone of your limited intellect. I'm not surprised that you've resorted to the standard glibertarian "sky is falling" rhetoric.

Perhaps you'd be better off hiding under your bed until the end of President Obama's second term. You'll be safe there. If you're lucky, Mom will put the television on the floor so you won't miss Glenn Beck.

Observerofu
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Hey Bacon breath

First Hope you have a safe and happy Thanksgiving and remember what it really means.

Second you have to suspend all intelligence to ignore the evidence from across the Country as well as the commodity indexes.

I gave you absolute proof of same but you choose to ignore it. So to excoriate others for doing what you yourself do, well is a little hypocritical don't you think?

Chris P. Bacon wrote:

I invite you to prove my data wrong...sadly, your personal opinion, like that of your lying spineless brethren Observer, doesn't pass muster with regards to being verifiable.

Well Ok.

Here are your facts:

"In 2010, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all food is projected to increase 0.5 to 1.5 percent--the lowest annual food inflation rate since 1992. Food-at-home (grocery store) prices are also forecast to increase 0.5 to 1.5 percent, while food- away-from-home (restaurant) prices are forecast to increase 1 to 2 percent."

But here is what you conveniently leave out:

"Although inflation has been relatively weak for most of 2009 and 2010, higher food commodity and energy prices are now exerting pressure on wholesale and retail food prices. Hence, food inflation is predicted to accelerate during the final months of 2010 and the first half of 2011, leading to a forecast of 2 to 3 percent food price inflation in 2011."
"The CPI for all food increased 0.2 percent from September to October 2010, increased 0.3 percent from August to September 2010, and is now 1.4 percent above the October 2009 level. "

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-24/usda-retail-food-inflation-fore...

Cherry picking information to fit your facts is dishonest bacon. Some (you) would call it LYING.

PTC Observer
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Classic - Bacon

As I said, your philosophy is based on principles that are dishonest and shallow. You can attack me personally but it won't change the fact that you believe that government stealing through force is ok and I believe otherwise.

You can throw around statistics, links, "proofs" all you want. It is your ideas and those of your kind that are corrupted and you can't change this fact, that's the reason you resort to personal attack.

And I don't like or watch Glenn Beck, in fact I rarely watch TV at all.

What I do is think, which sadly I can see you are incapable of doing. Just a hint for you, you don't need government statistics, links, or anything else to defend your philosophy if your philosophy is based on universal truths and logic.

I am waiting for a cogent defense of your socialist philosophy. You can start by stating its principles and defending each.

Davids mom
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PTC Observer

From your reading and experience regarding inflation, what have you learned? And what will you do to protect yourself from the mistakes that we made previously and the mistakes we seem to be making now?

PTC Observer
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DM - thank you

for your reasoned question and I will try to answer the best I can, based on my experience with past inflation and my belief on what will happen in the future.

First, when inflation comes, and it will come as sure as day follows night, it will be with us a long, long time. It is possible that our currency will collapse, but that is worse case.

Second, if you are retired you will be hurt the most. It is essentially a tax on the poor and retired. I won't get political here, but I have strong feelings about those that have set this up for us. Let's just say that the FED is robbing your savings every day.

Third, there are specific inflation adjusted investment instruments you should consider. The best in my opinion are TIPS, these are inflation adjusted Treasury Bonds. The market knows that inflation is coming. The last auction for these bonds came at a discount. That is they sold at negative interest, they sold out. Negative interest (discount) has never happened in the history of the TIPS program.

Fourth, gold and other commodities are marginal investments but should be part of your portfolio. I wouldn't invest more than 10 to 15% in gold, silver, etc.

Finally, if you are retired, I would have some amount of gold coins in my home in a safe. Also, you should train yourself and your family members on how to use a weapon. A good tactical shotgun is a good choice along with a handgun that you can handle. Stock up on food for dry goods for about 2 to 3 months.

Hope this helps and good luck. Let me know if you have questions and I will try and answer.

Observerofu
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Ditto-PTO

Well said.
DM would do well to follow this advise.

I suggest foodinsurance.com as a quick way to get food that is compact and stable with a 20 year life. It has the added benefit of actually tasting great. A thousand times better than c-rats and mre's.

Courthouserules
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O of U

All you have to know is: "Where do the closest Mormons live?"

They all have a year's worth of food!

Then there are some kind of nuts in the GA mountains with great stores of food.

Just raid them!

Courthouserules
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DM

I don't recommend any of this!

Inflation actually helps retired folks with money! CDs go up to 10% paying interest.

Buying gold has been a bunch of baloney for a long time. Just like the stock market it is controlled by the mass buyers with computers and can destroy the market in a day or two. It is also extremely variable and is right now very high to purchase---even if it increases more it will fall.

What are you going to do with gold coins? You can't spend them. Especially the stupid Franklin kind!

A shotgun isn't much defense against a hungry crowd with dynamite and hand grenades and 50 cal.

Food for 2-3 months-----then what?

Hording has never been profitable and is selfish.

mudcat
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All that is good advice, but there is one more thing you can do

And that is to rid our governent of this wealth-envy agenda-driven crowd. Indeed they will let inflation loose if for no other reason than to diminish the value of retirement accounts and get fewer people to operate with tax-free dollars. All they need is to get over 50% dependent upon the government for their livelihood and they are happy. If anyone thinks that is not their goal, you are a fool. And when the liberal elites get permanent control, what do you think will happen to their loyal supporters? Dacha on the ocean for everyone? Maybe just really nice housing projects or 3 families sharing the McMansions? Gulags for those who refuse to work for slave wages and toe the party line?

Go ahead. Guess.
Or if you don't like guessing, go to the library - history section.

Courthouserules
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Mud

Let them eat cake!

Robert W. Morgan
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Muddy has a point and you don't

Leave it be and don't rock the boat, you stupid monkey

Courthouserules
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Morgan

Her point is so selfish and critical of change that I just tried to agree with her!

The old "dribble down" theory is much worse than float up! Unless you want to be a dribbler and cake producer!

SPQR
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Armour frozen meatballs

Downsized from 16 to 14 Oz. same price (3.29)Do the math

The problem with government numbers is they start out honest but then invariably turn into yellow rain.

Observerofu
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The incredible shrinking yogurt

Food manufacturers have long been reducing package quantities and keeping the price the same as a way of hiding price increases.

http://www.getrichslowly.org/blog/2008/07/29/hidden-price-increases-at-t...

Tuna is a great example.
Can sizes have gone from 7 ounces to 6 1/2 ounces and then 6 ounces to 5 ounces.
The 5 ounce can standard came out in 2008.

Some orange juice cartons now contain 59 ounces (instead of 64)
Ice cream has a reduced container size.

This is not really new. It is just now being noticed more. Manufacturers have gone about as low as they can go in reducing product size for the same cost. Most have decided to pass on the cost no matter what.

The FACT is Food prices are increasing and will likely to increase sharply in Q1 2011.

Why? Well look to Government regulations and now the new S-510 the so called Food safety bill.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/11/28/MN6P1GGGAH.D...

Farmers are going to have to meet a whole new crop of Government regulations. With that comes cost. Guess who is going to pay?

Courthouserules
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Observerofyou

Personally, I don't want to see a bunch of people get sick again off peanut butter because the owner or manager or CEO allowed leaks in the roof and mold to generate to save a little money!
That is purely criminal. Without regulations (strict) they will scout around safety.

A little e-coli here and there I guess is OK from lettuce picked from a field just below a pig sty, along with a dozen other cases about meat that was contaminated. We could have fed Haiti for a year on the meat recalled---recalled to what, do we know?
That recall must raise the price of the next batch, at least their insurance!

Coffee started the small package generation when they went from a pound to 12 ounces--no price change except later, up. Corn Flakes was about .89 not long ago, now up to 3-4.00 dollars. Guess that is due to "regulations!"
(I checked 1955 also, .19)
As to "farmers" hurting!
All of the farmers are gone! 90% owned by large conglomerates, that don't know squat about farming nor castration!

Our troubles with contamination started when we quit growing our food locally for local distribution, and turned it over to a pig pen the size of R.I. in Iowa, etc. Chickens are grown with 10% more space than their bodies require to stand still! With 20 foot mounds of chicken manure just outside the compound!

You people and no regulations----do you really think the state or locals will regulate?

Observerofu
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Who can do the job better

an already bloated over burdensome government or the people that actually consume the product.

You forget that Laws and Regulations already exist. Did they stop the issues you mentioned?

Courthouserules
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O of U

You make little sense!

Results would be horrible very quickly with no federal regulations. Forget Georgia, they wouldn't care.

Mind telling me how I, a consumer as you say, could regulate health?

Just another impossible want to get votes!

Ninja Guy
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Ragu Spaghetti Sauce at Publix

Buy one, get one free. Oh my goodness, 50% deflation!!!

Courthouserules
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NO on Ragu

Not 50% deflation if the cost of one bottle before the sale was jacked up!
Happens often.

Ads anymore in the fine print say in so many words that they never sold the product at the so-called retail price!

Percent off ads mean nothing if you don't know what the product costs from reading the ad! Like, was selling at $50, now on sale at 50% off, for $25. Legally it would have had to sell at $50 at some point.

We are brain-washed to buy % off stuff! So they manufacture a price twice what it never has been. Kinda like the Bank bundled worthless mortgages!

And we criticize the middle-east traders!

Courthouserules
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SPQR

The inflation index doesn't count food---meatballs and all!

SPQR
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food inflation update

Rounded off. Bison meat at Publix from 10.00 to 12.00

Pay attention folks. In no time at all you're going to be purchasing a gallon of milk for 50.00.

dawn69
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Inflation .....

I've read many an article lately that predicts 2-4% inflation by the end of 2010 and overall inflation to be around 3-4% for 2011. However, I have personally documented a sampling of prices from 11-3-10 to 12-3-10. Some items had no price increase whatsoever, but most had an average 10% increase. When a dozen store brand Grade A large eggs went from 1.27 in November to 1.45 in December .... that folks, is more than a 14% increase .... IN ONE MONTH.

Chris P. Bacon
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Dawn...take the challenge!

Dawn, I invite you to take the 2011 Citizen Blogger Inflation Prediction challenge and go on record as to what you think inflation will be for next year.

Many of the 'regulars" here have made their predictions, and so far we have a very wide range of estimates, ranging from 1% to 13%.

Georgia Patriot
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Buckle your Seat Belts

this is going to be a quick ride.....up. Commodities are rising rapidly. Food and Energy prices up. Paid 2.94 a gallon for gas today. Clean out your wheelbarrows folks, you will need them to hold the cash when you go to the grocery store. -GP

dawn69
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Reminds me of the time at the

Reminds me of the time at the beach a few years ago: Floating out in the water, I suddenly noticed that everyone was on the beach, including my family, pointing my direction in the water. I felt the sudden panic come over me and cautiously looked around to see what everyone was pointing at. That's when I saw the HUGE dark shadow just feet behind me .... it was a manatee. Thank God. But the analogy is .... when you notice the wealthy run for gold and silver (silver is actually your best buy, from what I'm reading) then it's time to look around for whatever it is that they are running from. :)

Observerofu
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Dawn you are correct

Food and Energy are already rising and will go much, much higher.
The nay sayers believe all is well and nothing to worry about.

I suggest start canning. NOW

Don't and wait it out and hope it will be ok OR do a little to protect you and yours.

The downside. You have extra food and get to laugh about all those fears that turned out to be just rumors.

The upside. While others are out trying to find bread and milk you get to have dinner by the fire.

dawn69
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Observer ....

I agree. Whether you believe that hyperinflation is in the future or not, it is always a good idea to have an adequate food supply in the case of any incident in which you may need to "shelter in place".

Further, we are in a global grain crisis as it is with countries like Russia, Canada, and Pakistan all experiencing grain shortages due to either poor crops or flooding. These countries provide 30% of the worlds grain.

In addition, scientist have determined that the depopulating of the honey bee may be attributed to a virus ... they are not yet sure how to remedy the problem. I know, seems like a trivial matter in the great scheme of things, but the point is that, aside from inflation, there's a myriad of problems that could threaten food supply.

Personally, I don't see the "intrinsic" value of gold and silver. Metals are valuable because historically people have always liked shiny things. I see food as the only thing with real intrinsic value.

Observerofu
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Dawn Government meddling in our money supply

will insure some type of inflation.

Unfortunately they are creating a Bond bubble.

A Hedge fund bubble.

A China Credit bubble.

God only knows what else our spending spree, record deficits and Monetizing our debt is doing to our and others economies.

Tragedy and Hope by Carroll Quigley laid out the Theory of MAED. Mutually Assured Economic Destruction.

This in a nutshell told how they (Government) tied the World's economies together in the "Hope" that the "Tragedy" of World War would never occur again. Because they did this our Government are unable to make corrective steps to ease a recession or other similar economic issues. Our spending, lowering yeild rates on bonds and credit borrowing affects China which in turns affects Europe which in turns affects developing Countries and circle continues.

Ireland, Spain, Greece, Portugual all are going under. It is the domino effect and we are in line as well.

Say Goodbye to America’s Bond Bubble
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/12/09/mean-street-say-goodbye-to-america...

Mark Hart, an American hedge fund manager who has made millions predicting the crises in US sub-prime market and European debt, has launched a fund to bet on the imminent implosion of China.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8166440/...

PTC Observer
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Observerofu - inflation

True, so true. I was speaking with a vistor today from South Asia, he said that the money printing in the US is flowing into developing countries and inflation is going crazy there. The ability of the FED to export our excesses, will eventually show up in price inflation on goods imported back here. It's coming and I give it months, not years.

AtHomeGym
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GP & Gas

Don't know where you buy gas, but I tanked up today at my local Flash Foods for $2.77!

dawn69
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Gym

I noticed that today as well. I passed the station at the corner of Hwy 54 & McDonough Road, where the sign said $2.98, and drove over to Flash Foods where the gas was $2.77.

Georgia Patriot
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You can't be Selective

When Your hot your hot, and when your out, you're out! I was in one of our work trucks left on empty by an employee. Gas is still 15% more than last year. Of course government leaves out food and energy, like they don't matter. -GP

Courthouserules
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Inflationary Increases

If all costs were considered in the calculations, some years would give unions and government worlers and pensions a 20% increase and a -2% the next.

So they don't use anything that varies much--it is a worthless number.

I'll bet the cost of NASA rockets isn't in there!
They just come up with a number that is PC!

Hey, the American public "can't stand the truth!"

Courthouserules
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GA Patriot

I have tried to understand what you said, but can't.

I don't know what a "your hot, and a your out," is.

Did the truck run out of gas? Maybe the employee didn't have a CC?

I agree with you on the inflation calculating---they are crooked with that.

Georgia Patriot
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Truck was on empty

so I went to the closest station. Usually we use Flash Foods, Kroger or BJ's. When "you're hot you're hot" was a reference to an old Jerry Reed song, sometimes we do what we hafta do, not what we wanna do http://www.cowboylyrics.com/lyrics/reed-jerry/when-youre-hot-youre-hot-1... -GP

Courthouserules
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GA Patriot

I'm talking about a "your hot." I don't have a "hot", I don't think!

Do you have a "hot?" Did you mean you are? Or you're?

I still don't get the gas problem except maybe you are ticked at the employee!

Georgia Patriot
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What we Have here

is a failure to communicate. The reason you don't understand is I am speaking in Tea Party Code. Bet I can eat 50 eggs. -GP

Courthouserules
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yore kiddin me?

thet ole charctere actore thet sed thet centence, Strother Martin, air ded hain't him?
aye onderstood pig laten more betr if you dont mine!

Oda peaksa tia?

them aigs has gotten tuh be harde boilt thoe! Ona hicksca nia hemta!
Gort, fetch Klatuu!

all them had tuh ate wuz them aigs and korn bred und beans! sumtime maters, korn, cabage, water grits, bucket watre, fatback, branch letuce, and aligater.

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