Two months ago, before the Republican convention, I was rash enough to predict that Obama probably had CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, IL, MA, MD, ME, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT and WA for 230 delegates, and Romney probably has AL, AR, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV and WY for 191 delegates.
That left the battleground states as: FL (29), IA (6), MI (16), NC (15), NH (4), NV (6), OH (18), VA (13) and WI (10).
The race has probably changed. Specifically, Colorado is probably not a lock for Obama reducing him to 220 delegates. But, Michigan is going Obama, giving him another 16, back up to 236. On the other hand, Romney almost certainly will take North Carolina, adding 15 delegates and bringing him to 206.
That leaves the battleground states as: CO (9), FL (29), IA (6), NH (4), NV (6), OH (18), VA (13) and WI (10).
Romney must take Florida although the trend is for Obama. He needs 64 electors and everything except Florida adds up to 67. If Romney loses Florida, he must win everything else and the odds of a scenario whereby Romney loses Florida and wins every other swing state are realistically about zero. So, give Florida to Romney or go to bed early; and now he is up to 235 needing 35.
Ohio is the big state left and Obama is ahead by about 3%, but it is almost impossible for Mitt to win without Ohio because if Obama gets Ohio then he is up to 254 and only needs 16 and Obama is ahead in all the swing states. So give Romney both Florida and Ohio to keep the race open and he is at 253.
That leaves the battleground states as: CO (9), IA (6), NH (4), NV (6), VA (13) and WI (10). It may surprise that Obama is ahead in Virginia and very well may take the state but again it seems to be another must win for Romney. It also illustrates the extremely difficult position Romney is in. Give him Florida and if he takes Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia, then he is at 266 and still doesn't win. He'll need one more state.
Colorado is going for Obama. Not a sure thing but Obama is way up. Iowa is Obama's and so is Nevada with its Jewish retirees and Latino populations. Wisconsin is going to Obama. Picking Ryan was a losing strategy that the extremists Teas forced on Mitt to prove again his conservative bona fides to them instead of allowing Romney to select a VP that would expand the Party. It showed weakness at the time and proved to be just that as Ryan can't even deliver his own state.
Obama has the momentum and is ahead in all of the swing states except Florida where he is tied. Romney's campaign is in full panic, as well they should be. Obama is going to win and it looks like a substantial win, probably between 45 and 65 electors.