The Presidential Campaign
With two months to go and the Republican convention about to start, the Presidential race looks better for Obama.
Obama probably has CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, IL, MA, MD, ME, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT and WA for 230 delegates.
Romney probably has AL, AR, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV and WY for 191 delegates.
That leaves the battleground states as: FL (29), IA (6), MI (16), NC (15), NH (4), NV (6), OH (18), VA (13) and WI (10).
Obama probably has NH (4) and NV (6) which gives Obama 240, needing only 30 more. That would be Florida and any other state.
Obama is ahead in OH (18) and IA (6). Without Florida but with Ohio and Iowa, Obama has 264 and wins with any other state.
Romney probably has NC (15) giving him 206 needing 64.
The battleground states come down to FL (29), IA (6), MI (16), OH (18), VA (13) and WI (10) with 92 delegates being contested.
If Obama wins Florida and any other state he wins even if Romney wins everything else.
If Romney wins Florida, and Obama wins any two of the bigger toss-up states, Obama wins.
Romney must win Florida and both Michigan and Ohio and another state or he has to win Florida and either Michigan or Ohio and two other states.
It is a very tough task for Romney and picking Ryan did not bring in a single new voter for him like reaching out to someone like Jindal, Rice or Rubio would have done. The Ryan selection looks more and more like a miscalculation and wasted opportunity.