2012 white voters stayed home, re-elected Obama

Dick Morris's picture

Now that all the data is in, the fundamental reason for Mitt Romney’s defeat is apparent, if largely unreported. It is not just that blacks, Latinos and single women showed up in record numbers at the polls. It’s that whites didn’t.

The final numbers suggest that 91.6 million votes were cast by whites — 7 million less than the 98.6 million cast in 2008! Meanwhile, 16.6 million blacks voted, 300,000 more than in 2008 and 11 million Latinos voted, 1.7 million more votes than were cast by Hispanics in 2008.

We lost because whites stayed home. Particularly among the elderly, the voter turnout was disappointing with seniors casting only 16 percent of the vote, much less than had been anticipated. (Seniors were the only age group that President Obama lost by a significant margin — 15 points).

Why didn’t whites vote and why didn’t we all spot it sooner?

Impact of Sandy: There was no good national polling after Sandy struck. Gallup, for example, suspended its polling. At the last minute, it put together a national sample — with lots of disclaimers about the dangers of inaccuracies due to the difficulty of sampling storm-hit areas — and it showed a slight Romney lead.

Romney was, in fact, leading before Sandy. His chances blew away in the storm with the famous bi-partisan photo of Governor Chris Christie with Obama. And there was no way to measure the impact of Sandy since there could not logistically be any polling. Why was I wrong? I’m a pollster, not a meteorologist!

But the real question is why the support for Romney among whites was so shallow that the winds of Sandy blew it away. The answer lays in the fundamental strategic mistake the Romney campaign and the super PACs made in June and July — of not answering Obama’s Bain Capital attacks.

These withering attacks undermined Romney’s standing among white voters and led directly to their diminished turnout.

The Romney campaign and the super PACs were so wedded to their attack ads that they failed to realize that Bain posed a mortal threat to the credibility of their candidate. Many other consultants joined me in pleading in vain for a reply to the Bain attacks, but none was forthcoming.

There is a very good story to be told about Bain, and it was masterfully captured in an ad produced by Romney media guru Stuart Stevens. Unfortunately, it aired for only a limited time and there was no follow-up. Had that very ad been run more, Romney would, in my opinion, have been elected president.

The Republican consultants are so enamored with negative ads that they do not appreciate the impact of rebuttal media. It has the capacity to wipe away negative ads and trigger a backlash against the candidate who airs them.

But the doctrine of always attack — reminiscent of the French and British generals in World War I — does not permit rebuttals, only new negatives.

And we paid the price.

[Dick Morris, former political consultant and pollster, writes a nationally syndicated political column and provides commentary for Fox News.] COPYRIGHT 2012 DICK MORRIS AND EILEEN MCGANN; DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS.COM

JeffC
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Dupe

...

RKS
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Dick is also a doofus.

Really, dude......you are pitiful. Fake News Network stops at nothing do they?

JeffC
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Dick Morris

Dick Morris and Newsmax set up the Super PAC for America for which FOX allows Morris to trumpet and fund raise for in his segments on FOX news and for which Newsmax pays Morris as a columnist to write articles to solicit donations to the Super PAC for America to fight for one cause or another. The Super PAC uses the donations to solicit new donations and they paid Newsmax $1.7 million dollars to fund raise. Newsmax then pays most of that money back to Dick Morris to use his mailing list. But Dick Morris doesn't manage his list because he's subcontracted that to... wait for it... Newsmax Media. In fact, payments to Newsmax Media's were 46% of the Super PAC for America's net contributions from the public for the 2012 election cycle.

Now this is a really sweet deal if you are either Newsmax or Dick Morris. They're essentially slurping half of the donations to the Super PAC for America right off the top in fees that they pay to each other and they also get the maintained Morris/Newsmax email list that they rent to the Republican candidates for about $30,000 a solicitation. Check Dick Morris' website for current prices.

Or to send a donation.

AtHomeGym
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RKS, Morris, & 'Doofus'

Like what he writes or not,he is a Nationally Syndicated Columnist and I don't think that happens if one is a certified Doofus, do you? Regardless, he's putting an opinion out front for all to see and just what are you doing?

RKS
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At HOme Gym - Doofus
AtHomeGym wrote:

Like what he writes or not,he is a Nationally Syndicated Columnist and I don't think that happens if one is a certified Doofus, do you? Regardless, he's putting an opinion out front for all to see and just what are you doing?

My opinion is that he is a doofus, plenty of those on tv and radio, both lib and conserv...they get paid to be doofuses and way too many Americans believe it all.

NUK_1
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Not a fan of Dick Morris in general

He's a sleaze personally and his political predictions have been completely laughable and terribly wrong.

Not sure that being nationally syndicated means anything more than a corporation out there thinks they can make some money off of his columns. The widest circulated syndicated columnist is Cal Thomas, basically a political neanderthal from the Stone Age. Hey, whatever sells I guess.

kcchiefandy
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Kinda like...

...John Stewart on the Comedy Channel; the Rush Limbaugh of the Liberals! You'd think now that Bush is gone he'd go away, but then again Limbaugh is surviving after that Clinton clown!

kcchiefandy
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AHG, he's apparently...

...listening to National Proletariat Radio & the Communist News Network too much! Dehumanizing people are a tactic they use to silence dissenters; next come the activist judges to eliminate 'negative' speech against the gov't...

WLVROCKS
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Sour Grapes and Pathetic Excuses

The election is over. The GOP lost. The South also lost the Civil War.

Why, oh why, can't those who were defeated accept reality? Whining, moaning and complaining will not change or improve your situation and serves only to advertise juvenile, persistant and pitiful excuses for failure.

rolling stone
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WLVROCKS: sour and pathetic

What can you expect from a party that is sore even when they do win?