ObamaCare will bankrupt states

Dick Morris's picture

While Obama has been at great pains to make a show of avoiding taxes on the middle class to pay for his healthcare changes, his proposed increase in Medicaid eligibility will have a huge impact on the 39 states whose income cutoffs for the program are below those required in the new federal legislation.
All states except for Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Vermont and Wisconsin (plus the District of Colombia) will have to raise their eligibility for Medicaid under the Senate healthcare bill. And they will have to pay for part of the cost. Under the House bill, with a higher Medicaid eligibility standard, Massachusetts and Vermont would also have to pay more.
The magnitude of the new Medicaid spending required by Obamacare is such as to transform the nature of state finances. A large part of the reason that some states, particularly in the South, have been able to avoid higher taxes is because they have chosen to keep down the Medicaid eligibility level.
The hardest hit states would be Texas ($2.8 billion in extra state spending), Pennsylvania ($1.5 billion), California ($1.4 billion) and Florida ($909 million). Who knows if Florida could avoid imposing an income tax if it has to meet so high an unfunded mandate?
In many of the states represented by swing senators in the healthcare debate, the required increases in state spending are likely to be quite high.
In Arkansas, where swing Sens. Mark Pryor and Blanche Lincoln live, the increased state spending required under the Obamacare bill would come to $402 million (not counting the federal share), about a 10 percent increase in state spending.
In Louisiana, where Marie Landrieu has sold her vote in return for more Medicaid funding, the increase would come to $432 million (a 5 percent hike in state spending), more than wiping out the extra funds she got in return for her vote.
In Indiana, where moderate Evan Bayh is senator, spending would go up by $586 million, a hike of 4 percent.
In Ben Nelson’s Nebraska, the additional state spending required under the bill would be $81 million, a 2 percent increase.
The Obamacare bill would cost North Dakota, home of Sens. Kent Conrad and Byron Dorgan, $14 million, and in South Dakota, represented by moderate Democrat Tim Johnson, Medicaid spending would have to rise by $33 million.
The Medicaid expansion provisions of the Senate bill are complex. In the first year of the program (2013), states must enroll anyone who earns less than 133 percent of the poverty level in their programs. For a family of four, the national average poverty level in 2009 is $22,000 a year. So any family that size that makes less than $29,000 would be eligible for Medicaid.
Many states, particularly in the South, actually have Medicaid cutoffs that are below the poverty level. Arkansas, for example, cuts off its Medicaid eligibility at only 17 percent of the poverty level, and in Louisiana, it goes up to only 26 percent. For these states, the spending increase required by the new bill is huge.
For the first three years of the program (2013-2015), the federal government would pay for all of the costs of the Medicaid expansion. But, starting in the fourth year of operation — 2016 — the average state would be obliged to pay 10 percent of the extra cost.
For Democratic governors, this provision means sudden death. Particularly in states with limited Medicaid coverage, it would require huge tax increases that would bankrupt their states.
This mother of all unfunded mandates is a tsunami coming at the states as Obama tries to shift to them as much of the program cost as possible.
The following chart indicates the amount of new state money each of the 39 affected states would have to come up with apart from federal aid to cover the unfunded mandate in the Baucus or Senate version of the healthcare bill:
State spending increases in Medicaid required by Senate health bill (all in millions): Alabama $394 million; Alaska 39; Arizona 217; Arkansas 402; California 1,428; Colorado 163; Delaware 35; Florida 909; Georgia 495.
Hawaii 41; Idaho 97; Iowa 77; Indiana 586; Kansas 186; Kentucky 199; Louisiana 432; Maryland 194; Michigan 570; Mississippi 136; Missouri 836; Montana 29; Nebraska 81; Nevada 54; New Hampshire 59; New Mexico 102.
North Carolina 599; North Dakota 14; Ohio 399; Oklahoma 190; Oregon 231; Pennsylvania 1,490; South Carolina 122; South Dakota 33; Texas 2,749; Utah 58; Virginia 601; Washington (state) 311; Wyoming 25; and West Virginia 132.
These data are rough calculations prepared under the advice and guidance of the Republican staff of the committee. The exact numbers — which have not yet been released — will vary due to a number of factors, some not even worked out yet in the bill.
But they present a clear indication of the order of magnitude of what is coming down the pike for 39 states under this bill.
[Dick Morris, former political consultant and pollster, writes a nationally syndicated political column and provides commentary for Fox News.] COPYRIGHT 2009 DICK MORRIS AND EILEEN MCGANN; DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS.COM

conditon55
conditon55's picture
Offline
Joined: 03/12/2010
Health Care Industry Golden Chariot

The problems with health care go back decades.

Clinton tired to push through reform and was crushed.
No GOP administration attempted to push through reforms.
Obama pushed through reforms. And some folks hate them.
GOP was in the game the whole time.

The problem is not with how do manage the insurance. The problem is the drug of easy federal dollars and the health care industry costs.

We do not have the best care in the world. We have the most expensive care in the world.

With the federal government $16 trillion dollars in debt, is it worth bankrupting the country to bankroll the health care industry in the USA ?

Looks at any new hospital. If it is built like the Taj Mahal, is the health care better ? Look at any medical teaching institution - they are awash with wealth. Financed by easy federal dollars.

It is like the housing bubble. and the bills is going to come due.

Don't like Obama care? Fix the problem of a health care industry inflating cost to harvest federal money - out of your pocket and mine.

mudcat
mudcat's picture
Offline
Joined: 10/26/2005
Pretty easy fix, condition55

Same fix as taxes - just make people aware of what they are actually paying and they will revolt. In the case of health care simply ban insurance, Medicare, Medicaid and licensing of doctors. Then everyone will pay for the care that they need and can afford. Old white guy with diabetes needs dialysis that costs $3,000 per month and he can't pay? Too bad - no dialysis. But he could go to a street-corner doctor who has herbs and potions and pay what he can afford. Or in the case of the young black girl who needs a heart transplant and happens to be the daughter of the President of the U.S. - green light all the way for that $500,000 cure. People in their 70's and 80's who have cancer - forget it. It is time to die anyway. Or they can go to Costa Rica and buy drugs stolen from the U.S. hospitals.

The nice new private rooms at Piedmont Fayette? How about 6 patients in each?

Damn right the bubble is going to burst and Obmacare is much more a pin than a pillow.

Yes, that will be the solution if we keep ignoring the problem and kicking the can down the road.

Recent Comments