Does an ‘October surprise’ await us?

Cal Beverly's picture

For more than 30 years, political pundits have raised red flags about an “October surprise,” an unexpected announcement or event that blind-sides a political opponent or party just before the November election.

Google “October surprise” for a quick course in previous suspiciously timed disclosures or actions that seem to be aimed at maximum effect on the electorate. Note that both Democrats and Republicans have been accused of dropping October surprises onto the public plate.

With the midterm elections poised to provide an anticipated smack-down of Democrats, here’s my suggestion of a scenario that really could turn the tables in the election — and unleash a wave of unanticipated counter-events following the election.

Suppose — just for a hypothetical exercise — that sometime in the fall, maybe October and more likely late October — but before Tuesday, Nov. 2 — President Barack Obama, in close coordination with the nation of Israel, unleashes a military attack on known nuclear sites within the nation of Iran.

Hold for a moment all knee-jerk reactions about the wisdom or rightness or effectiveness of such an attack. Just concentrate on the likely effect of such a thunderbolt out of the blue on an electorate angry at Obama and the Democrats.

Remember the rallying around the flag following 9-11? Remember Democrats and Republicans standing together in support of then-President Bush as commander-in-chief of a nation suddenly and unexpectedly at war?

What would you expect to happen following an early morning news bulletin that joint American and Israeli forces had launched air and sea (and maybe ground) attacks against the rogue Iranian government to destroy Iran’s capability of producing nuclear weapons?

And how would you vote a few days later when you faced the ballot choice of Democrat or Republican? At a time of war, would you vote against the President’s party?

Just hypothetical questions at this point, and maybe unworthy of your time or of serious consideration.

But here’s something that is not hypothetical: Iran is racing to build a nuclear weapon and then several nuclear weapons. Absent such a military attack, Iran will become the 800-pound gorilla in the Middle East. Iran will have to be treated with the deference and kid gloves that we now treat nutty North Korea.

With just the threat of unleashing the Iranian nuclear capability, think how much overt military bullying and damage Iran will be able to inflict on the region, short of outright nuclear exchanges. They will be able to bully many into submission, and those who won’t submit to their diplomatic bullying may well be subjected to their military bullying, including massive terror attacks and explicit invasion.

Unlike the first President Bush with Desert Storm following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, we and the world will be unable to mount a conventional non-nuclear military response to Iranian aggression. We will be impotent against any Iranian action. And short of a nuclear exchange between one tiny country and one much geographically larger country, so will Israel.

That’s no hypothetical scenario. That’s coming.

Maybe not by the November election, but soon. And then what will we do?

And let’s don’t even speculate about what nutty, nuclear thing North Korea might initiate.

Chris P. Bacon
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Observerofu

Your commentary assumes that Iran is some sort of terra-ist rogue nation, when most rational people realize they most certainly are not. Iran is one of the most developed capitalist nations in the Middle East. "Palin Republicans" and "Reagan Republicans" adequately describe political factions over there.

You've fallen into the trap into believing what both Israel and Iran say, versus what they actually do. For instance, despite having a near-facist right wing president in Israel who publicly boycotts Iran, Israel imports a large amount of oil from Iran, transhipping via Rotterdam in the Netherlands so that the oil becomes a quote European import unquote LINK

No one denies that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a Palin-class nutjob, hell, he might even be a Herman Cain-class nutjob. It's interesting, though, how this guy came to power.

Back around 2000, American capitalism was doing to Iran what American military might and American boycotts could never do: reform the country. An entire generation of Iranians had grown up since the 1979 revolution, and they had no great love for religious leaders. What they did love, however, was Western goods. The political power of the mullahs was lessening.

After 9/11 though, things changed. Iranians were genuinely scared when the Crawford Coward declared them to be members of the so-called Axis of Evil. People in general have a tendency to embrace religion when times get dire, and Iranians were no different. The mullahs welcomed their return to power, and that's the situation we have today.

AtHomeGym
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CPB & Herman Cain

I would like to see your explanation of just why you wclassify Herman Cain as a "Nutjob".

Courthouserules
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GYM: Herman

Herman has the gift of gab! It got him so far only in Industry but his skill ran out!
He preaches rabid "conservatism" on the radio about:

Women have no right to an abortion for "any" reason, and her doctor has no say. (I suppose that makes him also against "pulling the plug")
Preaches for a "strong" national defense, Who doesn't?

Is for the so-called "fair tax" which gets him a radio audience of middle and above income people.

He wants a law to "cap" spending---where? On what?

He want to remodel (cut) the Social Security system. Go to 401-ks!!!!! Poor people are supposed to have a large savings account at the bank.

He believes in the Constitution---who doesn't?
He is a Hermanator! Sounds like El Rushbo, huh?

AtHomeGym
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CHRS & Herman Cain

If you can honestly make these statements, I will say that you must listen to him more than I do, for I have never heard him discuss abortion or a law to "cap spending". If you do not approve of the "fair tax", pls tell me why. I have never heard him talk about "cutting"Social Security"--your words".

Courthouserules
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GYM: selective sayings

I'm not sure Mr. Cain is on the same side about oil company operations as is Limbaugh, Hannity, O'Reilly and others but he would seem to be:

IF the oil company and the Government can successfully "seal" the recent destroyer well of the Gulf, and then in about 10-15 years cleanse the Gulf waters to normal, what are they going to do with the other 10s of thousands there that we really don't know the status? Some are leaking considerably now! Apparently there are stubs all over the place that can easily be damaged and start leaking---one happened last week.

The Gulf isn't the only oil disaster occurring. Alaska is known to be the place where MANY disaster are waiting to happen (even though Sarah wants to drill more). The Alaskan government and our federal government have covered for them for a long time. Alaska gets great INDIVIDUAL cash checks each month! The equipment and wells there are in terrible shape and the pipeline is old an poorly maintained. They have spills all of the time. It won't run down here so.....

Africa is the longest time and possibly the worst pitiful situation yet---primarily Nigeria. The same Oil Dudes are granddaddy's there also.
The Marshes and Deltas are totally ruined forever!!! Thick,untreated oil very deep is covering great plains where food used to be grown.
There is practically NO CLEAN-UP occurring. A few poor people with no protection on hands, feet or clothing are picking up buckets of it and pouring it in different places for International inspectors.
The air is extremely toxic and those people won't live long who are still there.

Then we have Russia with oodles of oil. Want to check them out?
Then we have China who will surpass us in Industry anytime now, mining coal at the expense of maybe a death or maiming ever 100 tons of coal!

Stop the "I don't believe it" crap about the destruction of the air and land and sea!

Half of Atlantans are at the doctor's office every year for lung problems from our air quality. LA is again a medium brown when flying in! Terrible sight.

Everybody's doing it you say? Sure are. At least their government is allowing it.

Observerofu
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Courthouse I see you are using a computer

is the Air Conditioner running as well? Are you setting that shinning example that Al Gore sets? Did you drive today to get something to eat?

I noticed you seem to dislike oil. Ok. Replace it with what? What time frame are you looking at? Just asking.

Courthouserules
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overflow

You are as crazy as you were before!
You don't seem to understand anything! The problem isn't about oil itself, it is about the selfish crazies who polute with it---mainly the oil companies.
They pay so much stock dividends and so many highly paid people that they can't operate safely and smartly----so they don't.
Right now the British people are upset at us--------their pensions are funded primarily by BP stock returns!
Do you now understand?

Observerofu
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No CHR I do not

Most oil companies operate fully in compliance with all State and Federal rules and regulations. Short cuts become the norm only when regulations become so onerous that small operators cannot comply. Companies like BP give so much money to the politicians that they are paid to look the other way. That's not just BP's fault that is the corrupt politicians that accept the money.

Look who has received the bulk of BP's contributions and you might start to see a problem.

mudcat
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courthouserules - you have the best avitar ever

It is perfectly aligned with the way you talk - stupid, like a monkey.

Herman Cain is the best person available and he should be President instead of the poser we have in there now. Maybe he will run. Whatcha do then, monkey?

Courthouserules
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mudhen

Your avatar: Isn't that the best Secretary of State we have ever had?
Whose husband may have been the best President. Whose only daughter just married a rich Jewish investment banker.

Courthouserules
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mudcat: Orangutan

The nearest species having the most DNA closest to us! You know, Ishmael!They have also just found three fossil bodies in Africa, two million years of age, who are very close to "the missing link."

(you might have to think about that one about Ishmael) (the book)

carbonunit52
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Uh mudcat,

I do believe that is a picture of an ape.

AtHomeGym
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Chrs & Herman Cain

If he can command that sort of fee for a speech (and get it) would you like to speculate just why there is a demand for his presentations? BTW, what do YOU charge to make speeches in front of real people?

Courthouserules
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GYM

Look up his BIO, it's all there! He says a lot of it at his 50,000 dollar speeches to people who want to hear it!

Chris P. Bacon
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Vermin Cain
AtHomeGym wrote:

I would like to see your explanation of just why you wclassify Herman Cain as a "Nutjob".

Vermin Cain is a fringe extremist, as evidenced by the paltry 26% of the votes he received in the GOP Senate primary in 2004. When three out of four of your fellow Republicans reject you, that should tell you something.

Observerofu
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Bacon your inability to keep

your ideology out of this conversation only proves my point. You do not know what you are talking about.. To say that Iran is not a Terrorist state is to completely ignore the 12th Iman religious fervor that is present in Iran today. Granted the people themselves may or may not believe, but when the Government has all the guns the people are irrelevant.

Chris P. Bacon
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Observerofu
Observerofu wrote:

your ideology out of this conversation only proves my point. You do not know what you are talking about.. To say that Iran is not a Terrorist state is to completely ignore the 12th Iman religious fervor that is present in Iran today. Granted the people themselves may or may not believe, but when the Government has all the guns the people are irrelevant.

So you are of the opinion that I somehow "do not know what I am talking about". I invite you to point out specific instances where you feel I am in error and present fact-based evidence of these errors.

On the other hand, if you're just going to claim that I'm "wrong" simply because you happen to disagree with me, I suggest you save your breath for your inflatable girlfriend.

Observerofu
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Bacon..

Please address the 12th Iman issue and explain how this fits with your theory that Israel's self defense stance is the root cause of Iran's aggression. I would be surprised if you have ever studied this issue. That is why I said you don't know what you are talking about.I have brought it up twice and as of yet you have not commented on it. Tells me you know little of the subject.

I have read in the archives many of your postings. For you to say "On the other hand, if you're just going to claim that I'm "wrong" simply because you happen to disagree with me, I suggest you save your breath for your inflatable girlfriend." just shows your hypocrisy.

That is exactly what you have done to many others and to use crude insults shows a remarkable lack of class and intelligence, understandable however, in a progressive. Insults are the tool of a weak mind. Not an insult just an observable fact.

btw.. you said and I quote " I invite you to point out specific instances where you feel I am in error and present fact-based evidence of these errors."

Well here you are I don't need to go any further then this little beauty.

"You said: Your commentary assumes that Iran is some sort of terra-ist rogue nation, when most rational people realize they most certainly are not."

You might want to look at the US Dept of State terrorism report. Iran just happens to be on it. http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/2008/index.htm

And this from the BBC: Iran remains the "most active state sponsor of terrorism" in the world, a report by the US state department says. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8028064.stm

And this from Hillary Clinton: US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton accused Iran on Tuesday of sponsoring terrorism the world over, including in the Kingdom. DO you consider her rational?

And this from the Council of Foreign Affairs: "‘Overwhelming Evidence’ of Iran’s Support for Iraqi Insurgents"

And this from the Huffington Post: "Iran Is "Most Active State Sponsor Of Terrorism" In World: US"

And this from Terrorism Research: "Several terrorist groups including Lebanese Hizballah, HAMAS, the Palestine Islamic Jihad, and Ahmad Jibril's PFLP-GC have been provided funding, safehaven, training, and weapons in Iran."

And this from.... well you get the picture. But then again you probably don't.

Chris P. Bacon
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Good morning, Observerofu

My apologies for taking so long to get back to you, I've been travelling. On to the debate!

You've actually done some research in your above post, that raises you up a notch over the typical conservative talking-point regurgitator that frequents this joint. I salute you for that.

Now, I had planned on writing a lengthy treatise on what constitutes terra-ism and why, but fortune smiled upon me. Last evening I read an article published yesterday that encapsulates my position in its entirety. You can read it HERE. If you'll grant me an indulgence and read this, I promise I'll never ask you to read another article!

I particularly applauded the author's notion that the concept of "terrorism" has devolved into "a catch-all term applied to anyone resisting Israeli or American authority".

America seems to actively resist the notion that actions have consequences. We bomb a reactor in a foreign country (an act of war, btw), sing hosannas to our brave troops, and think we're done.

We're not done.

Not by a long shot.

America was spoiled by the absolute surrender of Germany and Japan in WWII. A look at history shows how wars rarely have such absolute conclusions. Lately, we've taken to overthrowing governments, and then scratching our heads in wonderment when the "conquered" populace still resists us.

That's what we're facing in Iraq and Afghanistan. And make no mistake, a more developed country like Iran, things would be much, much worse.

Observerofu
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Bacon.. Thanks

for not imposing more ideology in this forum for debate. You nor I will solve the issues at hand however dialog both good and/or bad is always productive.
I will study your link tonight. Right now I have customers that want a good T-Shirt at a competitive price and then off to see the Accountant while he tells me I don't pay enough in taxes. My Banker and my account disagree.

Observerofu
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Bacon and Salon

I am not a fan of Salon as much as I figure you are not a fan of say Redstate. I find a website that leans far to one side or the other may or may not be credible.
Salon had issues of the reporting on the Presidential Assassination story as well as the Dr. Tiller late term abortion stories. Both proved to be true but Salon said both story's were false and that was just two of the more recent ones.

However that being said, Iran's people are a great people. It's their Government that is the issue. They believe in the 12th Iman. This belief holds that the 12th Iman will rise out of a well somewhere in the desert and bathe the world in blood. This must happen to bring about the domination of the world and it's conversion to Islam. Think of the most ardent snake handling old time abortion doctor killing religious fruitcake. Now multiply that by a thousand fold and you might get the 12th Iman types over there.

These true believers would scare Khan. That is why "talking" to them makes no difference. They know only two things. Their "faith" and your capitulation.

Courthouserules
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Religion in politics again!

We felt the same way about all Germans, All Japanese, All Italians (In Italy) during the WW2! Except for the Catholic Italians who were duped by a dictator, we felt Germany and Japan were heathens.

Many, many Muslims in various countries just tolerate the "religious leaders," because they have to do so. I know they throw rocks at one another at the Hajj, but some of us handle rattle snakes and hate Mormons!

As to scaring Khan, yeah some are that bad---the leaders, but so are some of the rest of the religions when they feel it necessary---Remember the Crusades The Inquisition, The Spanish Catholics in South America, and numerous others in history.

THAT is why we must keep religion out of politics---it has proved un-workable for hundreds of years! Let the individuals and churches and private institutions handle religion.
People will kill each other in a NY minute over religion!

Observerofu
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CHRS current trumps past

we must remember the past as always for if not we are doomed to repeat it. However trying to compare 12th century crusades with 21st century Jihad is like comparing a Model T to a Porsche. There is no comparison.

The current group of fanatics are by far not alone. I mean it is not their kids they are sending to Israel to blow themselves up it is the main population that are almost as fanatical as the clerics.

Granted not all believe. Some want peace. I have a good friend who is Iranian. His parents came over during the Shah's reign and he tells me horror story's that are occurring today. The story in the news now is the girl that is to be stoned for what they considered Adultery.

Iran as a Nation will never break the grip around it's throat that the Clerics have unless the clerics are removed. The people cannot do it they have no power.

Courthouserules
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Chris: very good!

Our military theory of fighting only with gadgets against countries that are backward to begin with and usually fight as guerrillas does not win overall victory! How many have tried it in the last 200 years in the Middle-East?

If you want to occupy a country there and put the bad guys on trial go in with enough boots after the gadgets are used. If you don't, they will just hide awhile and resume business as usual. You are correct about Iran also. We can certainly conquer them and rule them, but only with WW2 type planning. Which we didn't use in Viet-Nam or Korea either!

Want someone to blow up without occupying---how about the nuclear capabilities of 2-3 countries I won't mention who aren't yet capable of retaliating here.

I prefer the General Gavin philosophy however:
Ring our country with ICBMs aimed at ever one or just one, and have a highly trained military of just about three million or more! Then let the idiots fight one another.
Also keep out of their oil fields.

Cyclist
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Cal - October Surprise

You mean the President who won the Nobel Peace Prize - for reasons unknown - would join with Israel in a surprise attack on Iran? That's hard to believe.

It wouldn't influence my vote.

AtHomeGym
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Cy, Israel certainly has

a plan to attack Iran---but I suggest it is broader than just fly over and drop some bombs. I suspect it includes acts like covert/overt equipment sabotage and some other little tricks. I don't believe Israel has any confidence that Presbo would commit us to anything--and when you're fighting for survival, planning takes on a different perspective and, like always, they're willing to go it alone if need be.

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Here's a real scary October surprise

Our nation is financially broke and thus we are unable to project strenght any where in the world. Something to think about.

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cyclist: Nobel Peace

President Obama's win does seem somewhat early!

However, most winners of the prize of recent years has been for helping the downtrodden. Such people can be a real peace problem to any society if ignored. Watched Africa lately? Arizona?

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Yes CHR$

I've been watching the events in Africa. Unfortunately, wide spread peace hasn't broken out after Jan 16, 2009. As for Arizona, I suspect Judge Bolton will make a ruling tomorrow.

Courthouserules
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cyclist

President Obama didn't win the prize for work since 1/16/09!

Before, mostly at Harvard and Chicago! Some work in Hawaii and some in Indonesia. You wouldn't be familiar with those places, I suppose.

Mostly though probably for what he has done for the black race by winning elections! Maybe? Anyway the Nobel committee is a bunch of Communists, I hear!

Maybe they aren't worth a bundle of Nobel Dynamite to blow them up anyway.
Their dynamite built the USA you know.....my Grandfather used it to blow out stumps and rocks to make land usable.
Also, the HOOVER dam people used it a lot. Great stuff.

Many bank robbers of the Whooppee generation blew safes with it.
I suppose you knew all this, sorry!

Cyclist
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Chicago,

the inner city war zone. I try not to go there. Your Grandfather blowing up stumps.....I thought he was a coal miner?

PTC Observer
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Cal - Obama scenario

Mr. Obama could part the Red Sea and I would vote against him.

Courthouserules
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PTC observer: Mr. President Obama

I do agree that Governor (part-time) Palin if elected in such circumstances would handle the situation wonderfully. All those Momma Grizzlies would rear-up and scare the hell out of Iran, North Korea, Syria, China, Pakistan, Russia (next door to Iran), and Hugo Chavez and BP.

Now Newt and Romney as Vice-Presidents would just say as did Alexander Haig, "I'm in charge here at the White House!"

Secretary of the Interior, Bristol Palin, and her husband Johnston would simply go to the Alaska border with Russia and keep an eye out there!
They can see Russia from their back porch.

Israel popped Iraq's nuclear functions once---why not Iran. We supply all of the money and backup anyway.

Cal, you are wrong about hitting Iran with anything significant. It would back-fire in the voting booth with just the opposite of what you say.
Who could even think that any of the republican leaders, including Palin, could be defeated since they would obviously "hunt em down, smoke em out, and bring em to justice," right away. Who "em" is we have not found out yet--it wasn't Saddam and his evil twins. Nor Osamma. Nor Mullah Omar.

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Courthouserules

Your avatar is appropriate Bonkers.

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